The German bank also adjusted its year-end target for silver, lowering it to $67 an ounce from a previous estimate of $80. Thu Lan Nguyen, who led the analysis, attributed the downward revisions to persistent inflation pressures that force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. Despite these adjustments, the bank views current market expectations for aggressive rate hikes as excessive, suggesting potential for a recovery from current price floors if the Fed leaves rates unchanged through the end of the year.

While geopolitical tensions in Iran have historically bolstered gold, Nguyen noted a shift in market dynamics. The U.S. dollar has reclaimed its status as the primary safe-haven asset, dampening demand for bullion. Furthermore, Commerzbank sees little evidence that the regional conflict is inflicting lasting damage on the U.S. economy, as long-term inflation expectations remain anchored.

Looking toward 2027, the bank maintains a bullish structural outlook. Factors such as central bank diversification away from dollar-denominated reserves, skepticism regarding U.S. policy, and rising sovereign debt levels across advanced economies provide a long-term floor for gold prices. If inflation moderates as expected, the bank projects gold could reach $5,000 an ounce by 2027, provided the Fed begins to pivot toward rate cuts.