The American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise build in commercial crude inventories for the week ending July 30, defying analyst expectations for a 2 million barrel draw. This shift follows a period of aggressive volatility, as commercial stocks excluding the SPR have shed over 58 million barrels in sixteen weeks. The SPR itself saw a further withdrawal of 2.9 million barrels, leaving it 427 million barrels below maximum capacity and nearing an operational threshold that experts warn could hinder efficient processing.

Energy markets reacted sharply to these indicators and emerging rumors of a possible US-Iran peace deal. Brent crude plummeted 5.41% to $79.24 per barrel by Tuesday afternoon, while WTI dropped 5.75% to $75.97. Despite the build in commercial crude and a modest 156,000-barrel increase in gasoline, distillate inventories tightened further, falling by 1.2 million barrels to settle 9% below the five-year average. Domestic production remains largely steady at 13.796 million barrels per day, a marginal decrease from the previous week but still reflecting a year-over-year gain of 482,000 barrels.