Coal accounted for 49.7% of China’s power generation during the first half of this year, marking the first time the fuel has dropped below the 50% threshold. Despite this shift, the country’s massive wind and solar installations—the largest globally—cannot yet provide on-demand reliability. Consequently, coal persists as a vital, flexible backstop for the national grid.

Beijing maintains a 2030 target of 30% clean energy, yet the simultaneous approval of numerous new coal-fired power plants suggests long-term dependence. This dual strategy leaves the economy exposed to thermal coal price fluctuations, which directly impact import volumes. After months of double-digit growth, coal imports dipped by 1.5% in August following the recent market spike, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.