While the central bank has not yet observed a full-scale spillover from energy markets into the wider economy, the second wave of price increases presents a distinct risk to food and electricity costs. Services currently remain insulated from the volatility, but consumer anxiety is intensifying as diesel prices climb 40% and gasoline tracks 29% higher than February levels.

ECB projections rely on a potential peak in diesel prices by October, yet supply constraints and the looming possibility of U.S. export bans cast doubt on that timeline. With energy inflation already clocking in at 14.3% for August, the bank’s ability to curb price growth faces significant pressure from global market instability.