The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis reports that the energy shortfall, equivalent to 14 billion cubic meters, stems from the ongoing blockade trapping Qatari LNG supplies. Since March, the resulting supply squeeze has sent prices to levels that strain both household budgets and industrial output. The situation is compounded by the looming January 2027 deadline for a total ban on Russian LNG imports, which threatens to further tighten the market.

Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst at IEEFA, characterizes this dependency as a critical liability. The European Network Transmission System Operators for Gas echoes this concern, noting that even with optimal LNG logistics, a colder-than-average winter would necessitate a 7 percent cut in consumption. While policymakers maintain that immediate shortages are not expected, they acknowledge that the volatility in the Strait of Hormuz ensures that energy costs will remain significantly elevated through the coming months.