The IEA’s Global Gas Security Review 2026 highlights a significant shock to the system, as LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE dropped by over 60 billion cubic meters between March and October. While production increases in North America and Africa have compensated for some of this shortfall, they have failed to fully bridge the gap. Global LNG supply is now projected to shrink by 3% this year, marking the sharpest annual decline on record.

QatarEnergy has already signaled the duration of this strain, extending force majeure on deliveries through the end of December 2026. Because Europe must enter the coming year with depleted reserves, the region will face intense pressure to replenish inventories throughout the summer of 2027. This cycle of high demand and restricted supply suggests that market tightness will persist well beyond the immediate winter heating season.