In its October Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank forecast gold averaging $4,250 an ounce in 2027, down 7.6% from this year, and falling a further 5.9% in 2028. The projections are slightly below its April outlook, which put gold at $4,700 in 2026 and $4,300 in 2027. Silver, after an expected 76% annual gain in 2026, is forecast to decline more than 11% to $62 in 2027, then 6.5% to $58 in 2028.

The bank expects its broader precious metals price index to rise nearly 40% this year before falling 8.3% in 2027 and 6% in 2028. Even after those declines, it projects prices will remain more than three times their 2015–2019 average. Gold is expected to stay more than 75% above its 2021–2025 average.

Recent pressures include higher government bond yields, expectations of tighter monetary policy and a stronger U.S. dollar. The bank said gold fell 5% in the third quarter, with selling continuing into October; silver fell 14% as physical-market tightness eased and higher rates weighed on investment demand. The Federal Reserve’s September rate increase and similar moves by other major central banks have also challenged non-yielding metals, while a shift in bullish speculative positions added to selling pressure.

Investment demand and central bank purchases made up roughly half of global gold demand in the first six months of 2026. The World Bank expects both to moderate over the next two years but continue supporting prices; it also said central bank buying has begun to pick up again. Jewelry demand, weak since 2023, is expected to remain subdued as high prices deter buyers. Mine output should grow modestly, while recycling is expected to increase.

Silver faces additional uncertainty because of its industrial uses. The bank expects high prices to encourage efficiency measures and substitution of copper-based metallization for silver in solar panels, while weighing on jewelry and silverware consumption. Growing demand from electronics, data centers, automotive applications and power infrastructure should offer some support. Modest increases in mine production and recycling, alongside weaker demand, are expected to ease market tightness through 2028.

The World Bank described risks to its precious metals forecasts as broadly balanced. Renewed geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, market volatility or stronger central bank gold buying could lift prices above its baseline. Tighter-than-expected U.S. monetary policy, a stronger dollar, weaker global growth and rapid profit-taking or deleveraging could add downward pressure, with weaker growth particularly threatening silver’s industrial demand.

Across commodities, the bank projects a 23% price rise this year, driven largely by energy supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty, followed by a 7% decline in 2027. It warned that further geopolitical or weather-related disruptions—including the Middle East conflict and a powerful El Niño—could compound risks to inflation and monetary policy. “Setbacks on these fronts could mean persistently high energy prices and stress in food markets,” the report said.