The purchases would reflect changes in commodity index weights, rather than a fresh investment decision about gold’s outlook, the bank’s commodity analysts said in a note Thursday. Energy prices have surged amid the ongoing Middle East conflict while gold and silver have struggled, leaving benchmark-tracking funds needing to trim outperforming holdings and add to underperforming ones.

Société Générale expects gold’s weight to rise by roughly three percentage points in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and about one point in the S&P GSCI. It estimates funds will sell approximately $17.2 billion in February gold futures and buy roughly $20.5 billion in April contracts, for net buying of about $3.3 billion. Purchases of April futures could equal around 56% of typical daily trading volume during the rebalancing period. Silver could attract a further $2.5 billion in inflows, the analysts said.

The bank also pointed to growth in commodity-index investment. Assets tracking the two major indexes stood at about $147 billion at the start of 2026, rose above $200 billion earlier in the year and had fallen back to around $160 billion by November. BCOM-linked assets are estimated at roughly $112 billion, compared with $47 billion tracking the GSCI.

Precious metals have also gained a larger target share in the GSCI: their weighting rose from 4.1% in 2023 to 10% for 2027, supported by longer-term strength in gold prices and improving market liquidity, according to the analysts. In September, Société Générale said it was keeping gold and broader commodities at 10% each in its fourth-quarter multi-asset portfolio strategy, unchanged from the third quarter.