Brokerage firm Equirus reports that while refining margins currently provide a temporary buffer, the retail margins for gasoline and diesel remain firmly in negative territory. The volatility in the Middle East has created a dual crisis: a shrinking supply of affordable crude and an intensifying competition for winter gas. With Asian spot LNG prices reaching their highest levels since 2022—marking a 61% increase year-on-year—Indian importers are expected to scale back volumes throughout September.

The economic strain is already visible in the national import bill. During the April-June quarter, India paid 60% more for crude oil compared to the same period last year. This trend persisted into July, where the import bill rose 41% against the previous year’s figures. As shipping risks persist in the Strait of Hormuz, the operational costs for major industrial gas consumers continue to climb, threatening the broader stability of India’s energy supply chain.