Market analysts estimate a contraction in Asian demand between 3% and 10% this year, driven largely by price sensitivity in Northeast Asia. The benchmark price for the fuel climbed to $26 per million British thermal units by September 11, a sharp increase from the $10.40 recorded in late February. Kpler data indicates that regional imports for this month will total 20.09 million tons, falling short of the 22.27 million tons seen during the same period last year.

China, the world’s largest importer, remains the primary driver of this downturn. Buyers there are deferring discretionary stockpiling until at least late December or early 2027 to avoid current price premiums. While the broader region retreats, India continues to buck the trend; LSEG data suggests sustained demand from its fertilizer sector and household consumption will likely keep its import volumes stable despite the volatile global market environment.