The shift follows months of warnings from the bank regarding a severe diesel shortage, driven by refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East that remain 60% above seasonal averages. Because global refining activity is at its lowest level for this time of year since the 2020 pandemic, the industry has prioritized diesel output to mitigate the supply squeeze. This tactical realignment is now tightening gasoline markets, creating a new opportunity for investors.

Global refined product markets have remained volatile throughout the summer, with margins hitting record highs as the supply of finished petroleum products lags significantly behind crude availability. Although diesel futures are expected to continue their climb, the bank concludes that gasoline now presents a more compelling risk-reward profile for the coming year.