Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange settled at $14,783 a metric ton on Tuesday, just shy of the $14,875 record set in September. In New York, Comex copper for December delivery climbed to $6.871 a pound, nearly matching its own all-time high. This six-session winning streak reflects a tightening physical market in China, where cathode stocks in Shanghai have collapsed to 43,900 tons—a level not seen since 2023. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, fabricators are aggressively front-loading supplies, pushing spot premiums in Shanghai up by 550 yuan in a single day.

While global supply concerns mount due to production outages at major sites like Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in Congo, the U.S. remains an outlier with Comex warehouses holding 696,000 tons of copper. This glut, built up by importers bracing for tariffs that have yet to materialize, contrasts sharply with the drainage occurring elsewhere. Market participants remain divided on the sustainability of these gains; while some analysts point to the structural scarcity driven by AI data center demand and grid expansion, others warn that prices are becoming inflated. Whether the metal breaks its record before the Chinese market goes quiet for the holidays may hinge on upcoming trade signals from Washington and Beijing.