The latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission confirms that May production reached 102% of the country’s 1.5 million bpd quota. When combined with condensate output, the total volume hit 1.7 million bpd, a benchmark not seen since July 2025. This steady climb from 1.48 million bpd in February reflects a deliberate shift in the Niger Delta, where a government-led crackdown on illegal tapping and sabotage has finally allowed export streams to normalize.

Authorities are now pushing for an immediate 100,000 bpd increase to capitalize on global supply gaps exacerbated by the conflict in Iran. Looking further ahead, the state-owned NNPC has set a strategic target of 2 million bpd within the next two years. According to Udy Ntia, executive vice president for upstream, this trajectory is central to Nigeria’s ambition to reclaim its dominance in the African energy market.