The scale of the disruption is unprecedented. Since March, Ukrainian forces have struck eight of Russia’s 10 largest refineries, knocking more than 20 percent of the nation’s total refining capacity offline. The Kapotnya refinery, a primary supplier for the Moscow region, remains sidelined until at least the end of 2026. This tactical shift in the war has transformed the Russian energy sector from a source of state stability into a vulnerable bottleneck, according to the International Energy Agency.

Energy analyst Sergei Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center notes that the industry’s resilience is being stretched dangerously thin. Beyond the mainland, the impact is absolute; the governor of occupied Crimea recently announced a total halt in gasoline sales following strikes on critical supply routes. While Russia continues its long-standing aerial bombardment of Ukrainian energy grids, Kyiv’s rapid expansion of its domestic drone industry—utilizing long-range, anti-jamming technology—has effectively turned the tide of the energy war, forcing the Kremlin to balance the demands of a protracted conflict against domestic fuel scarcity.